Letters from Berezina

Wherein are posted missives to various authors of the Word.

Friday, January 20, 2006

Iranian Pride

To: Fred Kaplan
Re: How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ahmadinejad?

The United States should draw a line where Iran can capitulate and still save face: namely, at a violation of the NPT. This isn't ideal: as you say, they can walk right up to building bombs without violating it, but the alternatives are catastrophic, and the weakness of the NPT may work to our advantage: if we make it clear that we oppose any sanctions, and strongly repudiate any military action, as long as they're in compliance, Ahmadinejad and his superiors may settle for the capacity to produce weapons, without actually producing any.

An actual stockpile is much worse than a capacity to manufacture for reasons you're familiar with from the Cold War, as well as the most important and obvious: no weapons for terrorists to obtain.

Wednesday, December 07, 2005

Reid / Abramoff

To: Josh Marshall
Re: "Stick up for Harry."

Did Nevada's other Senator receive Abramoff money? Yes, about a quarter of what Reid received.

P.S.
For nuanced parsing, see this Las Vegas City Life piece by Steve Sebelius.

Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Flogging Jews, Part II

To: Mickey Kaus
Re: Mel Gibson Plans TV Miniseries on Holocaust

David M. Halbfinger wrote:
Mr. Taylor, who likened "Flory" to ABC's critically acclaimed 2001 miniseries, "Anne Frank," cautioned that Mr. Gibson's level of involvement would not be determined until the miniseries is completed - which at this stage of any project is still a long shot - and he has seen it. "If it happens to be produced by Mel's company, it doesn't mean he's going to be out there flogging it like he did 'Passion of the Christ,' " Mr. Taylor said.
I don't know, maybe that's exactly what a Holocaust miniseries needs: Mel Gibson as a Nazi.

Monday, December 05, 2005

The Right Price: Not a Market Proposal

To: Adam L. Penenberg
Re: The Right Price for Digital Music

The problem with your proposal is that the function linking price to demand is just as arbitrary as iTunes standard $0.99. Without a limited supply of product, there is no such thing as bidding in the naive sense you propose. [Note: I mean "naive" as a descriptive, not a hostile, term.]

The maximum revenue (&, with a marginal cost close to zero, profit) will occur if the industry gets everyone to pay exactly the maximum they are willing to pay in order to obtain a song. Coltrane pieces might well sell for much more than the latest pop single because the fans are devoted, and, probably, richer.

In the absence of a remote, billion-node mind-reading device, figuring the price is an art, not a science, and only crudely amenable to market methods. One possibility would be to make use of former Slate contributor James Surowiecki's 'Wisdom of Crowds' idea (well, he popularized it): create a market in which people place bets on how many copies of a song will sell at a given price point, and use that to set the price (via maximizing the function n*p, where p is the price point and n are the number of expected sales at that point.).

Sunday, December 04, 2005

The Day the Sea Came

To: Editor, The New York Times Magazine
Re: The Day the Sea Came

Allah has the easiest job in the universe. If he saves his people, they thank him for saving them. If he kills his people, they thank him for killing them. It reminds me of the military's attitude toward the Republican Party.

Tuesday, November 15, 2005

37% Dare Call It Treason

To: Josh Marshall
Re: A short note from TPM Reader MC ...

President Bush gave the speech at a military base because he wants to portray criticism of his administration as treason. As his approval rating is below 40%, this makes the majority of the American people traitors... pity the poor patriot!

Friday, November 04, 2005

Wilson Was Sent at the Behest of the OVP

To: Mickey Kaus
Re: Kristof: 'I might have gotten it right!'

Wasn't Wilson sent to Niger by the CIA pursuant to a request the OVP to investigate claims that Iraq was seeking yellowcake there? Doesn't that count as "behest" or would Cheney have to have asked for Wilson personally? The latter is the neocon's interpretation, but is it reasonable? Were soldiers sent into Iraq at the behest of President Bush, or would he have had to request the soldiers invade via personal phone call to each individual soldier?

The original use of "behest" is: that's where the impetus for the mission came from. Fair enough.

Out-of-State Workers

To: Mickey Kaus
Re: In Louisiana, Worker Influx Causes Ill Will

Near this speck on the map southwest of New Orleans, where an oil refinery spouts flames into the sky and alligators are said to lurk in the green canals, sits something that is causing consternation across Louisiana: a camp for out-of-state workers cleaning up after the flood.

The Times homepage tagged this as a story about out-of-state workers causing resentment in Louisiana. It's about illegal immigrants.