Iranian Pride
To: Fred Kaplan
Re: How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ahmadinejad?
The United States should draw a line where Iran can capitulate and still save face: namely, at a violation of the NPT. This isn't ideal: as you say, they can walk right up to building bombs without violating it, but the alternatives are catastrophic, and the weakness of the NPT may work to our advantage: if we make it clear that we oppose any sanctions, and strongly repudiate any military action, as long as they're in compliance, Ahmadinejad and his superiors may settle for the capacity to produce weapons, without actually producing any.
An actual stockpile is much worse than a capacity to manufacture for reasons you're familiar with from the Cold War, as well as the most important and obvious: no weapons for terrorists to obtain.
Re: How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ahmadinejad?
The United States should draw a line where Iran can capitulate and still save face: namely, at a violation of the NPT. This isn't ideal: as you say, they can walk right up to building bombs without violating it, but the alternatives are catastrophic, and the weakness of the NPT may work to our advantage: if we make it clear that we oppose any sanctions, and strongly repudiate any military action, as long as they're in compliance, Ahmadinejad and his superiors may settle for the capacity to produce weapons, without actually producing any.
An actual stockpile is much worse than a capacity to manufacture for reasons you're familiar with from the Cold War, as well as the most important and obvious: no weapons for terrorists to obtain.